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http://www.canoncitydailyrecord.com/Top-Story.asp?ID=2433
January 4, 2006
Daily Record Denver Bureau
DENVER
Colorado s adult prison population is expected to total 21,928 inmates by mid-2006, a 5.9 percent increase from the 20,704 Colorado inmates in state and privately operated prisons as of last June 30, according to the Legislature s staff economists.
Those economists also predicted in a Dec. 20 report that the state s adult prison population will grow by an average annual rate of 6 percent over the coming five years taking it to a total of 29,314 inmates by June 30, 2011.
By comparison, the report said, Colorado s total inmate population increased at an average annual rate of 5.8 percent over the past six years.
The legislative economists said their latest projections represented a slight increase from a similar set of long-range prison-population estimates they made in December, 2004.
The report said a number of external factors help drive prison admissions, including population, the economy, and changes in state laws.
"All other things being equal, a larger population results in a greater number
of criminal offenses, arrests, criminal felony filings, and prison commitments,"
the economists wrote.
The numbers of Coloradans between the ages of 20 and 49 increased an average 2.5 percent annually between 1990 and 2000, for example, with state prison populations growing by an annual average rate of 7.6 percent during that decade.
"As Colorado's population is projected to continue to grow, we expect this to
contribute to an increase in the total number of new admissions to prison,"
the economists said.
As for the economy, the report said "that studies show that people will be less likely to resort to crime, particularly nonviolent property crimes, if legitimate economic prospects are available."
The economists said those studies 'suggest that weak earnings and employment growth cause an increase in prison admissions.'
Even after a recession such as that during the early years of this decade,
"there is a lag time of one or more years for poor economic conditions to
translate into increased crime, criminal filings, convictions and ultimately,
prison admissions," the economists wrote.
As of last June 30, the economists said, the adult inmate population under
Colorado Department of Corrections' jurisdiction -- including inmates in both
state and private prisons was 18,631 men and 2,073 women.
By next June 30, the economists said, they expect inmate population to total 19,676 men and 2,252 women.
By mid-2011, there are projected to be 25,768 male inmates, and 3,546 women.
The Legislature's economists noted that prison sentences depend on the
discretion of the courts.
Meanwhile, they said, the Parole Board "has a tremendous influence upon the
parole population and the population of parole revocations in prison."
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